Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco
The Moroccan economy suffers deeply from two exogenous shocks: high oil prices and drought periods. The irregular rainfall and instability of oil prices increase the volatility of economic growth and the uncertainty around growth forecasts. We exploit the vulnerability to these shocks in order to forecast the economic growth in Morocco. We use for this an Error Correction model linking output and trade balance in a vector augmented by oil prices and cereal production as exogenous variables over the period 1962-2012. The results are in the range and comparable to those of other national institutions and IMF. For example, based on the hypotheses of 97.7 $ per barrel and a moderate cereal production of 70 million quintals, growth is forecasted to be around 3%, in 2014, with a lower and upper bound of 2.5% and 3.4% respectively. The IMF and the High Commission for Planning forecast respectively 3.8% and 2.5%.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-15, May.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.