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Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco

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  • Bentour, El Mostafa

Abstract

The Moroccan economy suffers deeply from two exogenous shocks: high oil prices and drought periods. The irregular rainfall and instability of oil prices increase the volatility of economic growth and the uncertainty around growth forecasts. We exploit the vulnerability to these shocks in order to forecast the economic growth in Morocco. We use for this an Error Correction model linking output and trade balance in a vector augmented by oil prices and cereal production as exogenous variables over the period 1962-2012. The results are in the range and comparable to those of other national institutions and IMF. For example, based on the hypotheses of 97.7 $ per barrel and a moderate cereal production of 70 million quintals, growth is forecasted to be around 3%, in 2014, with a lower and upper bound of 2.5% and 3.4% respectively. The IMF and the High Commission for Planning forecast respectively 3.8% and 2.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52892
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61522/9/MPRA_paper_61522.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1991. "The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 321-332.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-415, May.
    4. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Balance; GDP Volatility; Cereal Production; VECM-X model;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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