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Modelling of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics

Author

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  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

This paper examines the history of econometrics through a particular case study - modelling the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. It focuses on the questions of what econometric tools modellers would choose to model the tradeoff, how their choices helped shape the ways that they obtained, interpreted and theorised the empirical evidence and how their different concerns and the different problems that they encountered has fed back into the development of econometrics. The study reveals that much of the interaction between econometrics and economics involved modellers taking certain tradeoffs between theory and data, and their different positions generated disputes, factions as well as confusions. It also reveals that the history of modelling the tradeoff mirrors the evolving process of how the Cowles structural modelling paradigm in econometrics became consolidated, challenged, reformed or abandoned.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin, 2010. "Modelling of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 661, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp661
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    File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/media/econ/research/workingpapers/archive/wp661.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
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    6. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
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    13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 342-350, June.
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    18. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
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    20. Desai, Meghnad J, 1975. "The Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Interpretation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(165), pages 1-19, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammed Saiful Islam & Riduanul Mustafa, 2017. "Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 191-198, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; History of econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies

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