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The Lucas Critique Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer

    (UCLA)

Abstract

The Lucas Critique of Econometric Policy Evaluation argues that the parameters of econometric models are subject to theoretical cross-equation restrictions which follow from the fact that the endogenous variables of the models are chosen optimally by forward-looking agents. In this paper I argue that these facts alone are insufficient to generate such restrictions. I present an example of a model in which there exist multiple stationary rational expectations equilibria one of which is supported by a process-invariant forecast rule. Immunity to the Lucas Critique is proposed as a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E.A. Farmer, 1989. "The Lucas Critique Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," UCLA Economics Working Papers 551, UCLA Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:551
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    File URL: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp551.pdf
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    1. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    2. Michael Bruno, 1988. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," NBER Working Papers 2718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    4. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-1322, December.
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    8. Futia, Carl A, 1982. "Invariant Distributions and the Limiting Behavior of Markovian Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 377-408, March.
    9. Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    11. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(04), pages 740-769, December.
    12. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
    13. George Evans, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-1233.
    14. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    2. Farmer, Roger E A, 1991. "Sticky Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1369-1379, November.
    3. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    4. A L Tiffin & P J Dawson, 1997. "Measuring Oligopolistic Distortion In The Uk Frozen Potato Product Sector: A Calibration Modelling Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-3), pages 300-312.
    5. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Vázquez Jesús, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates during U.S. Post-War: A Case for the Lucas Proof Equilibrium?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, March.
    7. Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 523-550, July.
    8. María José Gutiérrez & Jesús Vázquez, "undated". "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Post-War U.S. Interest Rates and Changes in the Federal Reserve Chairman. Is There a Link?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-03, FEDEA.
    9. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2002. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," DFAEII Working Papers 2002-33, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    10. repec:cvs:starer:9613 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?," Working Papers CEB 09-048.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1996. "A theory of business cycles," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 91-109, Autumn.
    13. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2399-2415.
    14. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    15. Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. " Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting under Adaptive Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 197-220, April.
    16. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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