The Lucas Critique Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria
The Lucas Critique of Econometric Policy Evaluation argues that the parameters of econometric models are subject to theoretical cross-equation restrictions which follow from the fact that the endogenous variables of the models are chosen optimally by forward-looking agents. In this paper I argue that these facts alone are insufficient to generate such restrictions. I present an example of a model in which there exist multiple stationary rational expectations equilibria one of which is supported by a process-invariant forecast rule. Immunity to the Lucas Critique is proposed as a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Woodford, Michael, 1990.
"Learning to Believe in Sunspots,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
- Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Working Papers 86-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Michael Bruno, 1988. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," NBER Working Papers 2718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(04), pages 740-769, December.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-1322, December.
- Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 1985. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 433-453, March.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1982. "Comparitive Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," UCLA Economics Working Papers 259, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Timothy J Kehoe & David K Levine, 1985. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1873, David K. Levine.
- T. J. Kehoe & D. K. Levine, 1982. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Working papers 312, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
- Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-149, March.
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George Evans, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-1233.
- Futia, Carl A, 1982. "Invariant Distributions and the Limiting Behavior of Markovian Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 377-408, March.
- Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David K. Levine)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.