IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sol/wpaper/09-048.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?

Author

Listed:
  • Ariane Szafarz

Abstract

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, market efficiency is being heavily criticized. However, the volatility-based criticisms rely on false grounds as efficiency and speculative bubbles are compatible. Indeed, the efficient market model is about rationality and information, not about stability. This model admits multiple solutions, as do most rational expectations models. One solution is the so-called fundamental one while the others are referred to as rational bubbles. Still, many practitioners, and even some financial academics, keep denying that speculative bubbles are compatible with efficient markets. This paper argues that not only would the recognition of efficient market multiplicity thwart irrationality-based theories, but it would also allow for further empirical developments taking full advantage of the power of diversity. The multiple price dynamics compatible with market efficiency represent a valuable asset largely underestimated by the profession.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?," Working Papers CEB 09-048.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:09-048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/53992/1/RePEc_sol_wpaper_09-048.pdf
    File Function: RePEc_sol_wpaper_09-048
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-1026, November.
    2. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    3. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    4. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1991. "The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 321-332.
    5. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
    6. Gary Anderson, 2008. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models: A Horse Race," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 95-113, March.
    7. Fourgeaud, Claude & Gourieroux, Christian & Pradel, Jacqueline, 1986. "Learning Procedures and Convergence to Rationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 845-868, July.
    8. Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-351, August.
    9. Broze, Laurence & Gouriéroux, Christian & Szafarz, Ariane, 1995. "Solutions of multivariate Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 229-257, February.
    10. Broze, L. & Szafarz, A., 1984. "On linear models with rational expectations which admit a unique solution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 103-111.
    11. Michel, Philippe, 1990. "Some Clarifications on the Transversality Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 705-723, May.
    12. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
    13. Broze, Laurence & Gourieroux Christian & Szafarz A, 1984. "Solutions of dynamic linear rational expectations models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8421, CEPREMAP.
    14. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June.
    15. Guesnerie, Roger, 1993. "Theoretical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis in economic dynamical models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 847-864.
    16. Adam, M C & Szafarz, A, 1992. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 626-640, October.
    17. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    18. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    19. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    21. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    22. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    23. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    24. George Evans, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-1233.
    25. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    26. Stephen F. Le Roy, 2004. "Rational Exuberance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 783-804, September.
    27. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    28. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
    29. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    30. Pesaran, M. H., 1981. "Identification of rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 375-398, August.
    31. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    32. Roll, Richard, 2002. "Rational infinitely lived asset prices must be non-stationary," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1093-1097, June.
    33. Broze, L. & Gourieroux, C. & Szafarz, A., 1985. "Solutions of Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 341-368, December.
    34. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
    35. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    36. Michel, Philippe, 1982. "On the Transversality Condition in Infinite Horizon Optimal Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 975-985, July.
    37. Onatski, Alexei, 2006. "Winding number criterion for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 323-345, February.
    38. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    39. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    40. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
    41. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
    42. Laurence Broze & Ariane Szafarz, 1991. "The Econometric Analysis of Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/649, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    43. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    44. West, Kenneth D, 1988. " Bubbles, Fads and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 639-656, July.
    45. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-1160, September.
    46. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2014. "Issues in Identifying Economic Crises: Insights from History," Working Papers CEB 14-014, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Philip Mirowski, 2011. "The Spontaneous Methodology of Orthodoxy, and Other Economists’ Afflictions in the Great Recession," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 20, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Campos Dias de Sousa, Ricardo Emanuel & Howden, David, 2015. "The Efficient Market Conjecture," MPRA Paper 79792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Costa Cabral, Nazare, 2010. "Breve guia temático e bibliográfico sobre o estudo da actual crise financeira e económica [Short thematic guide to the study of current financial and economic crisis]," MPRA Paper 20743, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises:Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 20-26, November-.
    2. Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 105-111.
    3. Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 35/2006.
    4. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    5. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J. & Monfort, A., 2020. "Stationary bubble equilibria in rational expectation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 714-735.
    6. Roger J. Bowden, 1990. "Predictive Disequilibria and the Short Run Dynamics of Asset Prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(1), pages 65-87, June.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    8. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    9. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2020. "The Spectral Approach to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Papers 2007.13804, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    10. Roland Gillet & Ariane Szafarz, 2004. "Marchés financiers et anticipations rationnelles," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 7-17.
    11. Francesco Carravetta & Marco Sorge, 2010. "A “Nearly Ideal” Solution to Linear Time-Varying Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 331-353, April.
    12. Atıcı, Ferhan M. & Ekiz, Funda & Lebedinsky, Alex, 2014. "Cagan type rational expectation model on complex discrete time domains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 148-151.
    13. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    14. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
    16. Tom Engsted, 2016. "Fama On Bubbles," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 370-376, April.
    17. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    18. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
    19. Giovanni Ferri & Doris Neuberger, 2014. "The Banking Regulatory Bubble and How to Get out of It," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 39-69, April-Jun.
    20. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2018. "The Linear Systems Approach To Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 628-658, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient Markets; Multiple Solutions; Rational Expectations; Speculative Bubbles; Volatility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:09-048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebulbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebulbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.