Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model
We consider the stability under adaptive learning of the complete set of solutions to the model x_i=beta(Ei*)(x_i+1) when |beat| >1. In addition to the fundamentals solution, the literature describes both finite-state Markov sunspot solutions and autoregressive solutions depending on an arbitrary martingale difference sequence. We clarify the relationships between these solutions and show that the stability properties of equilibria may depend crucially on the representations used by agents in the learning process. Autoregressive forms of solutions are not learnable, but finite-state Markov sunspot solutions are stable under learning if beta
|Date of creation:||14 Jan 2002|
|Date of revision:||14 Jan 2002|
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- Chiappori, Pierre-Andre & Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Guesnerie, Roger, 1992.
"Sunspot Fluctuations around a Steady State: The Case of Multidimensional, One-Step Forward Looking Economic Models,"
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- Desgranges, Gabriel & Negroni, Giorgio, 2003.
"Expectations Coordination On A Sunspot Equilibrium: An Eductive Approach,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 7-41, February.
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- Woodford, Michael, 1986.
"Learning to Believe in Sunspots,"
86-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Gourieroux, C & Laffont, J J & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Rational Expectations in Dynamic Linear Models: Analysis of the Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 409-425, March.
- Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
- George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1986. "A Complete Characterization of ARMA Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 227-239.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
- Costas Azariadis & Roger Guesnerie, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 725-737.
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