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Expectations Coordination on a Sunspot Equilibrium: an Eductive Approach

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  • G. Desgranges
  • G. Negroni

Abstract

We analyze expectations coordination on a stationary sunspot equilibrium (SSE) using an eductive approach in which agents forecast the forecasts of others. This approach is grounded in some common-knowledge assumptions. We show that two institutional contexts may be envisaged; we also distinguish between stationary and nonstationary beliefs. We show that the conditions for eductive stability depend mainly on whether stationarity of beliefs is imposed. We also prove the existence of eductively stable SSEs by means of the Poincaré–Hopf theorem and show that eductively stable SSEs exist in a neighborhood of some indeterminate steady states.
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  • G. Desgranges & G. Negroni, 2001. "Expectations Coordination on a Sunspot Equilibrium: an Eductive Approach," THEMA Working Papers 2001-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2001-13
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    1. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March.
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    10. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
    2. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
    3. Ryan Chahrour & Gaetano Gaballo, 2015. "On the Nature and Stability of Sentiments," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 873, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 May 2015.
    4. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 931-952, May.
    5. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    6. Roger Guesnerie, 2006. "General Equilibrium, Co-ordination and Multiplicity on Spot Markets," Chapters, in: Richard Arena & Agnès Festré (ed.), Knowledge, Beliefs and Economics, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectational Stability of Resonant Frequency Sunspot Equilibria," CESifo Working Paper Series 497, CESifo.
    8. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with identical fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 420-443, November.
    9. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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