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Prophéties créatrices et persistance des théories


  • Roger Guesnerie
  • Costas Azariadis


[fre] L'article est consacré à l'étude de certaines interactions paradoxales entre les représentants des agents économiques et les faits observés. Il approfondit la réflexion entreprise dans un article précédent d'Azariadis où l'auteur montrait des exemples de validation de croyances « arbitraires ». On étend ici les conclusions en exhibant des conditions suffisantes pour qu'en l'absence d'incertitude intrin­sèque, une incertitude « extrinsèque » (les taches solaires) soit susceptible de conduire à des évolutions statistiquement compatibles avec les prévisions des agents. Dans le cas où deux groupes de la population ont des croyances distinctes fondées sur des observations indépendantes de phénomènes naturels différents (la « lune » et le « soleil »), on montre qu'il peut exister un équilibre stochastique validant statistiquement les deux théories. Cependant, ces deux « théories » pourraient être réfutées par un économètre sophistiqué et sceptique. [eng] Self fulfilling prophecies and persistence of theories . Costas Azariadis, Roger Guesnerie. The article studies paradoxal interactions between « beliefs » or « Theories » of agents and observed facts. It follows a previous article by the first author where examples of validation of « arbitrary » beliefs were given. Conclusions are extended hère by showing sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationnary stochastic equilibrinm reflecting the effect of « extrinsic » uncertainty (sunspots) on observed facts in a world without intrinsic uncertainty. When two subgroups in the population hold different beliefs based on the independant observation of two natural phenomena, the existence of a stochastic equilibrium validating statistically (at least weakly) both theories is shown.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Guesnerie & Costas Azariadis, 1982. "Prophéties créatrices et persistance des théories," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(5), pages 787-806.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_5_408681
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408681

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    2. Joao Ricardo Faria, 2004. "Small departures from rationality magnify fluctuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(5), pages 1-5.
    3. Philippe Michel & Bertrand Wigniolle, 1993. "Une présentation simple des dynamiques complexes," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(5), pages 885-912.
    4. André Orléan, 1989. "Pour une approche cognitive des conventions économiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(2), pages 241-272.
    5. Desgranges, Gabriel & Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Expectations Coordination On A Sunspot Equilibrium: An Eductive Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 7-41, February.
    6. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1998. "Introduction to Market Psychology and Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-13, May.
    7. Pierre Villa, 1997. "Incertitude sur le choix du modèle et rationalité," Working Papers 1997-09, CEPII research center.
    8. André Orléan, 1990. "Le rôle des influences interpersonnelles dans la détermination des cours boursiers," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(5), pages 839-868.
    9. Laurent Thévenot, 1989. "Équilibre et rationalité dans un univers complexe," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(2), pages 147-198.

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