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Prophéties créatrices et persistance des théories

  • Roger Guesnerie
  • Costas Azariadis

[fre] L'article est consacré à l'étude de certaines interactions paradoxales entre les représentants des agents économiques et les faits observés. Il approfondit la réflexion entreprise dans un article précédent d'Azariadis où l'auteur montrait des exemples de validation de croyances « arbitraires ». On étend ici les conclusions en exhibant des conditions suffisantes pour qu'en l'absence d'incertitude intrin­sèque, une incertitude « extrinsèque » (les taches solaires) soit susceptible de conduire à des évolutions statistiquement compatibles avec les prévisions des agents. Dans le cas où deux groupes de la population ont des croyances distinctes fondées sur des observations indépendantes de phénomènes naturels différents (la « lune » et le « soleil »), on montre qu'il peut exister un équilibre stochastique validant statistiquement les deux théories. Cependant, ces deux « théories » pourraient être réfutées par un économètre sophistiqué et sceptique. [eng] Self fulfilling prophecies and persistence of theories Costas Azariadis, Roger Guesnerie The article studies paradoxal interactions between « beliefs » or « Theories » of agents and observed facts. It follows a previous article by the first author where examples of validation of « arbitrary » beliefs were given. Conclusions are extended hère by showing sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationnary stochastic equilibrinm reflecting the effect of « extrinsic » uncertainty (sunspots) on observed facts in a world without intrinsic uncertainty. When two subgroups in the population hold different beliefs based on the independant observation of two natural phenomena, the existence of a stochastic equilibrium validating statistically (at least weakly) both theories is shown.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 33 (1982)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 787-806

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_5_408681
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408681
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  1. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
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