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Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables

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  • Evans, George W.
  • McGough, Bruce

Abstract

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results indicate that for some parameter regions SSEs are more likely to arise under private agent learning than previously recognized.
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  • Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:29:y:2005:i:4:p:601-625
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1273-1307, October.
    2. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Chih Liao & Pei-Jung Chou, 2008. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 25-41, June.
    3. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    6. Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Heterogeneous expectations, sunspot equilibria and their fragility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 276-279, December.
    7. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2011. "Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 959-992, August.
    8. Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2018. "Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-10.
    9. Cornaro, Alessandra & Agliari, Anna, 2011. "Global and local determinacy in a one-step forward looking New Keynesian model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1354-1362, May.
    10. Sergio Santoro, 2017. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 183-211, June.
    11. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Jasmina Arifovic, 2019. "Evolution of sunspot like behavior in the agent based economies of bank runs," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 365-389, March.
    14. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    15. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    16. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    17. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    18. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
    19. Shea, Paul, 2016. "Short-sighted managers and learnable sunspot equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-126.
    20. Berardi, Michele, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 776-792, May.
    21. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    22. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    24. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
    25. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.

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