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Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of the Development Trap?

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  • Sergey Slobodyan

Abstract

This paper contains a study of stochastic stability of the development trap in a model of economic growth when the production function is subject to externalities and, as a result, the development trap steady state ins indeterminate. In the presence of indeterminacy, sunspot equilibria can exist. I study the stability of the trap, subject to continuous-time sunspot shocks, modeled as a Wiener process. Global dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic versions of the model are completely characterized. Numerical simulations of the process of escape from the poverty trap caused by the presence of sunspot fluctuations are conducted. Escape time and probabilities are estimated analytically and numerically as a function of initial conditions and the model's parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Slobodyan, 2001. "Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of the Development Trap?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp175, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp175
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    Cited by:

    1. Slobodyan Sergey, 2001. "On Impossibility of Limit Cycles in Certain Two-Dimensional Continuous-Time Growth Mode," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, April.
    2. Slobodyan, Sergey, 2005. "Indeterminacy, sunspots, and development traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 159-185, January.
    3. Sergey Slobodyan, 2002. "Welfare Implications of Sunspot Fluctuations," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp204, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    development trap; indeterminacy; stochastic stability; sunspots;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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