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On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models

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  • Evans, George W
  • Honkapohja, Seppo

Abstract

The authors analyze the expectational stability (E-stability) of the different solutions of a linear rational expectations model in which the endogenous variable depends on expectations of its current and future values, formed in the past, and also on its own lagged value. It is shown that continuum of bubble solutions cannot be strongly E-stable. In contrast, for certain parameter values, a particular solution that would normally be identified as a bubble solution can be strongly E-stable. The results are applied to a macroeconomic model with real balance effects. Copyright 1992 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1992. "On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:33:y:1992:i:1:p:1-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    5. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
    6. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion," NBER Working Papers 7087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    9. Georges, Christophre, 2003. "Adjustment costs, learning, and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 101-116, October.
    10. Petia Ivanova, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory for the Cost Level and Monetarism," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 60-79.
    11. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2005. "Government policy and the probability of coordination failures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 939-973, May.
    12. Martin ZUMPE (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113), 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA 2010-01, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
    13. Bennett T. Mccallum, 2003. "Is The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 634-649, November.
    14. Granato, Jim & Guse, Eran A. & Wong, M. C. Sunny, 2008. "Learning From The Expectations Of Others," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 345-377, June.
    15. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
    16. repec:eee:ecolet:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:62-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    18. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
    19. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2017. "Identifying Price Bubble Periods in the Energy Sector," MPRA Paper 83355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "The Unique Minimum State Variable RE Soluiton is E-Stable in All Well Formulated Linear Models," GSIA Working Papers 2003-25, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    21. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2006. "Learning in linear models with expectational leads," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 854-884, November.

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