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Endogenous Cycles, Debt and Monetary Policy

  • Piero Ferri

    ()

  • Anna Maria Variato

    ()

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    The paper discusses the dynamic properties of a macro model with an investment function based upon both real and financial aspects and a labor market ruled by imperfect competition. The model is then enriched by a monetary policy rule and by agents who forecast according to a time series strategy based upon a Markov process. Simulations show the persistence of oscillations even in the presence of the Taylor rule. The relevance of such financial aspects as cash flows and debts can create a trade-off between the control of inflation and the cyclicality of the economy. Furthermore, instability and debt-deflation phenomena can arise.

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    File URL: http://aisberg.unibg.it/bitstream/10446/283/1/WPEco03(2007)Ferri.pdf
    File Function: Version, 07-2007
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University of Bergamo, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers (-2012) with number 0703.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:brg:wpaper:0703
    Contact details of provider: Postal: via dei Caniana, 2 - 24127 BERGAMO
    Phone: 0039 035 2052111
    Web page: http://www.unibg.it/struttura/en_struttura.asp?cerca=en_dse_intro
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    1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    5. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    6. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jess Behabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability," NBER Working Papers 9558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 609, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    13. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.
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    15. Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1999. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 99-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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    21. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 14 Jan 2002.
    23. George A. Akerlof, 2002. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 411-433, June.
    24. Flaschel, Peter & Gong, Gang & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "A Keynesian macroeconometric framework for the analysis of monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 101-136, September.
    25. Hicks, John, 1989. "A Market Theory of Money," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287247.
    26. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
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