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The Macrodynamics of Debt Deflation

With the recent events of the large-scale financial crisis in some parts of the world and the slowly declining inflation rate in major OECD countries debt deflation has again become an important topic in economic research. In a model with debt issuing firms, financing their investment, we explore the interaction of high nominal levels of debt, output prices, increase in real debt and declining economic activity. This destabilizing mechanism is explored in the context of a small-scale as well as in a large-scale Keynesian demand constraint economy. In both models labor market dynamics are emphasized. Our principle conclusion is that the small-scale as well as the large-scale models are prone to accelerating downward instability caused by over-indebtedness and declining prices if the process is not stopped by floors to deflation by appropriate government policies. Moreover, contrary to conventional views flexible exchange rates may add to downward instability.

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File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/scepa/publications/workingpapers/1999/cepa0207.pdf
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Paper provided by Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School in its series SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. with number 1999-04.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:1999-04
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  1. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Carsten Köper & Willi Semmler, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: VII Intensive Form and Steady State Calculation in the Case of Substitution," Working Paper Series 99, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: I The Starting Model," Working Paper Series 93, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Applying Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Debt Effects and Debt Deflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 714, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: IV Numerical Investigations of the Core 18D Model," Working Paper Series 96, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Carsten Köper & Willi Semmler, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: VI Substitution, Money-Holdings, Wealth-Effects and Further Extensions," Working Paper Series 98, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2000. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643511, November.
  7. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Foundations, Synthesis, Perspectives," Working Paper Series 85, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  8. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: III Basic Partial Feedback Structures and Stability Issues," Working Paper Series 95, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: II Intensive Form and Steady State Analysis of the Model," Working Paper Series 94, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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