IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v91y2018icp237-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Flaschel, Peter
  • Charpe, Matthieu
  • Galanis, Giorgos
  • Proaño, Christian R.
  • Veneziani, Roberto

Abstract

This paper studies the implications of heterogeneous capital gain expectations on output and asset prices. We consider a disequilibrium macroeconomic model where agents’ expectations on future capital gains affect aggregate demand. Agents’ beliefs take two forms – fundamentalist and chartist – and the relative weight of the two types of agents is endogenously determined. We show that there are two sources of instability arising from the interaction of the financial with the real part of the economy, and from the heterogeneous opinion dynamics. Two main conclusions are derived. On the one hand, perhaps surprisingly, the non-linearity embedded in the opinion dynamics far from the steady state can play a stabilizing role by preventing the economy from moving towards an explosive path. On the other hand, however, real-financial interactions and sentiment dynamics do amplify exogenous shocks and tend to generate persistent fluctuations and the associated welfare losses. We consider alternative policies to mitigate these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:237-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.10.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188917302063
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charpe,Matthieu & Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Semmler,Willi, 2015. "Financial Assets, Debt and Liquidity Crises," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107546660.
    2. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184.
    3. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    6. Reiner Franke & Toichiro Asada, 2008. "Incorporating positions into asset pricing models with order-based strategies," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(2), pages 201-227, December.
    7. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    8. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
    9. William Branch & George Evans, 2011. "Monetary policy and heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 365-393, June.
    10. Lawrence Blume & Steven Durlauf, 2003. "Equilibrium Concepts for Social Interaction Models," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 193-209.
    11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    12. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    13. Franke, Reiner & Ghonghadze, Jaba, 2014. "Integrating Real Sector Growth and Inflation Into An Agent-Based Stock Market Dynamics," FinMaP-Working Papers 4, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    15. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
    16. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April.
    17. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    18. Siklos, Pierre L. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert (ed.), 2013. "Central Bank Communication, Decision Making, and Governance: Issues, Challenges, and Case Studies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018934.
    19. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    20. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-248, May.
    21. George A. Akerlof, 2007. "The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 5-36, March.
    22. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
    23. Franke, Reiner, 2014. "Aggregate sentiment dynamics: A canonical modelling approach and its pleasant nonlinearities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 64-72.
    24. Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi & Tianhao Zhi, 2015. "Modelling the "Animal Spirits" of Bank's Lending Behaviour," Working Paper Series 183, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    25. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    26. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    27. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    28. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    29. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    30. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2006. "Asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1755-1786.
    31. Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Christopher Malikane & Christian Proaño, 2015. "A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 669-691, April.
    32. De Grauwe, Paul, 2012. "Booms and busts in economic activity: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 484-501.
    33. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    34. Sanchita Mukherjee & Rina Bhattacharya, 2010. "Private Sector Consumption and Government Consumption and Debt in Advanced Economies; An Empirical Study," IMF Working Papers 10/264, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
    36. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.
    37. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    38. Anat Admati & Martin Hellwig, 2013. "The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9929, March.
    39. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Franke,Reiner, 2011. "Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521369923.
    40. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
    41. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    42. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2019. "Housing markets, expectation formation and interest rates," BERG Working Paper Series 142, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. Arata, Yoshiyuki & Mundt, Philipp, 2019. "Topology and formation of production input interlinkages: Evidence from Japanese microdata," BERG Working Paper Series 152, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    3. Martin Carolin & Westerhoff Frank, 2019. "Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 627-660, August.
    4. March, Christoph & Sahm, Marco, 2018. "Contests as selection mechanisms: The impact of risk aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 114-131.
    5. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    6. Proaño Acosta, Christian & Lojak, Benjamin, 2019. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BERG Working Paper Series 148, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Giorgos Galanis & Ashok Kumar, 2018. "A dynamic spatial model of global governance structures," Working Papers PKWP1804, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    8. repec:spr:decfin:v:41:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10203-018-0214-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:dyncon:v:101:y:2019:i:c:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2017. "Fiscal consolidations and finite planning horizons," BERG Working Paper Series 130, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Mundt, Philipp & Oh, Ilfan, 2019. "Asymmetric competition, risk, and return distribution," BERG Working Paper Series 145, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    13. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2018. "Attitudes Toward Climate Policies in a Macrodynamic Model of the Economy," Department of Economics University of Siena 784, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    14. Roberto Dieci & Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2018. "Steady states, stability and bifurcations in multi-asset market models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(2), pages 357-378, November.
    15. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2018. "An Endogenous Mechanism of Business Cycles," Papers 1803.05002, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    16. Serena Sordi & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2019. "Investment behaviour and “bull & bear” dynamics: Modelling real and stock market interactions," Department of Economics University of Siena 800, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real-financial interactions; Heterogeneous expectations; Aggregate sentiment dynamics; Macro-financial instability;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:237-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.