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Macroeconomic and Stock Market Interactions with Endogenous Aggregate Sentiment Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Flaschel

    (University of Bielefeld)

  • Matthieu Charpe

    (International Labor Organization)

  • Giorgos Galanis

    (Goldsmiths, University of London and University of Warwick)

  • Christian R. Proano

    (University of Bamberg, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK), Germany and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australia)

  • Roberto Veneziani

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

This paper studies the implications of heterogeneous capital gain expectations on output and asset prices. We consider a disequilibrium macroeconomic model where agents’ expectations on future capital gains affect aggregate demand. Agents’ beliefs take two forms – fundamentalist and chartist – and the relative weight of the two types of agents is endogenously determined. We show that there are two sources of instability arising from the interaction of the financial with the real part of the economy, and from the heterogeneous opinion dynamics. Two main conclusions are derived. On the one hand, perhaps surprisingly, the non-linearity embedded in the opinion dynamics far from the steady state can play a stabilizing role by preventing the economy from moving towards an explosive path. On the other hand, however, real-financial interactions and sentiment dynamics do amplify exogenous shocks and tend to generate persistent fluctuations and the associated welfare losses. We consider alternative policies to mitigate these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Flaschel & Matthieu Charpe & Giorgos Galanis & Christian R. Proano & Roberto Veneziani, 2017. "Macroeconomic and Stock Market Interactions with Endogenous Aggregate Sentiment Dynamics," Working Papers 821, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:821
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    Cited by:

    1. Serena Sordi & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2020. "Investment behaviour and “bull & bear” dynamics: modelling real and stock market interactions," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 867-897, October.
    2. Peter Flaschel & Giorgos Galanis & Daniele Tavani & Roberto Veneziani, 2021. "Pandemics and Aggregate Demand: a Framework for Policy Analysis," Working Papers PKWP2101, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Christoph March & Marco Sahm, 2019. "The Perks of Being in the Smaller Team: Incentives in Overlapping Contests," CESifo Working Paper Series 7994, CESifo.
    4. Arata, Yoshiyuki & Mundt, Philipp, 2019. "Topology and formation of production input interlinkages: Evidence from Japanese microdata," BERG Working Paper Series 152, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    5. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2020. "Attitudes towards climate policies in a macrodynamic model of the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Martin Carolin & Westerhoff Frank, 2019. "Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 627-660, August.
    7. March, Christoph & Sahm, Marco, 2018. "Contests as selection mechanisms: The impact of risk aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 114-131.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    9. Christian R. Proaño & Benjamin Lojak, 2019. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," CAMA Working Papers 2019-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Giorgos Galanis & Ashok Kumar, 2018. "A dynamic spatial model of global governance structures," Working Papers PKWP1804, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    11. Roberto Dieci & Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2018. "Steady states, stability and bifurcations in multi-asset market models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(2), pages 357-378, November.
    12. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    13. Giorgos Galanis & Ashok Kumar, 2021. "A dynamic model of global value network governance," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(1), pages 53-72, February.
    14. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2017. "Fiscal consolidations and finite planning horizons," BERG Working Paper Series 130, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    15. Mundt, Philipp & Oh, Ilfan, 2019. "Asymmetric competition, risk, and return distribution," BERG Working Paper Series 145, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    16. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2018. "An Endogenous Mechanism of Business Cycles," Papers 1803.05002, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    17. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos, 2021. "Convergence and divergence in dynamic voting with inequality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 137-158.
    18. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2020. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle: modelling Minsky with heterogeneous agents," Department of Economics University of Siena 819, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    19. Peter Flaschel & Giorgos Galanis & Daniele Tavani & Roberto Veneziani, 2021. "Pandemics and Aggregate Demand: a Framework for Policy Analysis," Working Papers PKWP2025, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real-financial interactions; heterogeneous expectations; aggregate sentiment dynamics; macro-financial instability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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