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A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation

Author

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  • Peter Flaschel
  • Florian Hartmann

    ()

  • Chris Malikane
  • Christian R. Proaño

Abstract

The paper investigates the emergence of complex market expectations (opinion dynamics) around nominal exchange rate adjustments using a macro-financial model of a small open economy featuring heterogeneous expectation formation (chartists and fundamentalists) and gradual adjustment processes in real and also to a certain degree in financial markets. The model shows among other things the mechanisms through which the first type of agents tends to destabilise the economy. Global stability can be ensured if opinions turn to fundamentalist behaviour far off the steady state. This interaction of expectations and population dynamics is bounding the – due to chartist behavior – potentially explosive real-financial market interactions, but can enforce irregular behavior within these bounds. The size of output and exchange rate fluctuations can be dampened by adding suitable policy measures to the dynamics of the private sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Chris Malikane & Christian R. Proaño, 2014. "A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation," Working Papers 98, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 29 Jan 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0098
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Charpe & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proaño, 2014. "Business Confidence and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Nonlinear Two-Country Framework with Aggregate Opinion Dynamics," Working Papers 1401, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Tianhao Zhi, 2016. "The Theory and Models of Keynesian Disequilibrium Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 185, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño Acosta, Christian & Veneziani, Roberto, 2017. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," BERG Working Paper Series 125, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. repec:kap:compec:v:51:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-017-9649-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Florian Hartmann & Peter Flaschel, 2013. "Financial Markets, Banking and the Design of Monetary Policy: A Stable Baseline Scenario," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Tianhao Zhi, 2016. "Animal Spirits and Financial Instability - A Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Perspective," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 28, january-d.
    7. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics; Opinion Dynamics; Viability; Persistent and Irregular Fluctuations; Macroeconomic Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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