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Towards Keynesian DSGD (isequilibrium) Modelling: Real-Financial Market Interactions with Heterogeneous Expectations Dynamics

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Matthieu Charpe
  • Peter Flaschel
  • Florian Hartmann
  • Roberto Veneziani

Abstract

We consider an alternative modelling approach to the mainstream DSGE paradigm, namely basically a Dynamic Stochastic General Disequilibrium model of continuous adjustment processes on interacting real and financial markets. We introduce heterogeneous capital gain expectations (chartists and fundamentalists) and show that the first type of agents tends to destabilise he economy. Global stability can be ensured if opinions favour fundamentalist behaviour far off the steady state. This interaction of expectations and population dynamics is bounding the real-financial market interactions, but allows for irregular behaviour within these bounds. Stability can be further improved by adding suitable policy measures.

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Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 93-2012.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:93-2012
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Keywords: Output dynamics; Portfolio Adjustments; Opinion Dynamics; Viability; Policy Measures;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
  • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
  2. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December.
  3. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184, August.
  4. Tobin, James, 1982. "Money and Finance in the Macroeconomic Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 171-204, May.
  5. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian R., 2012. "Stock market booms, endogenous credit creation and the implications of broad and narrow banking for macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 410-423.
  6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
  7. Asada, Toichiro & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Mouakil, Tarik & Proaño, Christian R., 2010. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: On the choice of proper policy measures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-43.
  8. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.
  9. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
  10. Toichiro Asada & Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Christopher Malikane & Tarik Mouakil & Christian R. Proaño, 2011. "Output, stock markets and macro-policy measures in a Keynesian portfolio model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 341-360.
  11. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian, 2011. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: Fiscal and monetary policy, stocks, and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2129-2136, September.
  12. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
  13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
  14. Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-188, February.
  15. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
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Cited by:

  1. Matthieu Charpe & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proaño, 2014. "Business Confidence and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Nonlinear Two-Country Framework with Aggregate Opinion Dynamics," Working Papers 1401, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
  2. Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Christopher Malikane & Christian Proaño, 2015. "A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 669-691, April.
  3. Tianhao Zhi, 2016. "Animal Spirits and Financial Instability - A Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Perspective," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 28, December.
  4. Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi & Tianhao Zhi, 2015. "Modelling the "Animal Spirits" of Bank's Lending Behaviour," Working Paper Series 183, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Tianhao Zhi, 2016. "The Theory and Models of Keynesian Disequilibrium Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 185, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

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