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Modelling the "Animal Spirits" of Bank's Lending Behaviour

The idea of “animal spirits” has been widely treated in the literature with particular reference to investment in the productive sector. This paper takes a different view and analyses from a theoretical perspective the role of banks’ collective behaviour in the creation of credit that, ultimately, determines the credit cycle. In particular, we propose a dynamic model to analyse how the transmission of waves of optimism and pessimism in the supply side of the credit market interacts with the business cycle. We adopt the Weidlich-Haag-Lux approach to model the opinion contagion of bankers. We test different assumptions on banks’ behaviour and find that opinion contagion and herding amongst banks play an important role in propagating the credit cycle and destabilizing the real economy. The boom phases trigger banks’ optimism that collectively lead the banks to lend excessively, thus reinforcing the credit bubble. Eventually the bubbles collapse due to an over-accumulation of debt, leading to a restrictive phase in the credit cycle.

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File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp183.pdf
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Paper provided by Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 183.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2015
Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:183
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  1. Di Guilmi, Corrado & He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Kai, 2014. "Herding, trend chasing and market volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 349-373.
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  8. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
  9. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
  10. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.
  11. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money creation in the modern economy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 14-27.
  12. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian, 2011. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: Fiscal and monetary policy, stocks, and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2129-2136, September.
  13. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Roberto Veneziani, 2012. "Towards Keynesian DSGD (isequilibrium) Modelling: Real-Financial Market Interactions with Heterogeneous Expectations Dynamics," IMK Working Paper 93-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  14. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
  15. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.
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