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Modelling the "Animal Spirits" of Bank's Lending Behaviour

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Abstract

The idea of “animal spirits” has been widely treated in the literature with particular reference to investment in the productive sector. This paper takes a different view and analyses from a theoretical perspective the role of banks’ collective behaviour in the creation of credit that, ultimately, determines the credit cycle. In particular, we propose a dynamic model to analyse how the transmission of waves of optimism and pessimism in the supply side of the credit market interacts with the business cycle. We adopt the Weidlich-Haag-Lux approach to model the opinion contagion of bankers. We test different assumptions on banks’ behaviour and find that opinion contagion and herding amongst banks play an important role in propagating the credit cycle and destabilizing the real economy. The boom phases trigger banks’ optimism that collectively lead the banks to lend excessively, thus reinforcing the credit bubble. Eventually the bubbles collapse due to an over-accumulation of debt, leading to a restrictive phase in the credit cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi & Tianhao Zhi, 2015. "Modelling the "Animal Spirits" of Bank's Lending Behaviour," Working Paper Series 183, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:183
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    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp183.pdf
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    7. David Aikman & Andrew G. Haldane & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Curbing the Credit Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1072-1109, June.
    8. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
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    13. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Roberto Veneziani, 2012. "Towards Keynesian DSGD (isequilibrium) Modelling: Real-Financial Market Interactions with Heterogeneous Expectations Dynamics," IMK Working Paper 93-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Letture suggerite da Keynes blog - 2 novembre 2015
      by keynesblog in Keynes Blog on 2015-11-02 18:33:45

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    Cited by:

    1. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    animal spirits; contagion; pro-cyclical credit cycle; financial fragility;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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