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A credit cycle model with market sentiments

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  • Kubin, Ingrid
  • Zörner, Thomas O.
  • Gardini, Laura
  • Commendatore, Pasquale

Abstract

This paper extends Matsuyama's endogenous credit cycle model to account for recent findings on the role of credit market sentiments. The benchmark model uses a parsimonious financial friction specification in the form of a pledgeability parameter, which indicates how much of the revenue borrowers can pledge for credit. We endogenize this parameter by introducing behavioral aspects of credit markets. Depending on the current level of net worth the credit market sentiment may change. If a critical net worth threshold is passed, a switch from an optimistic to a pessimistic regime occurs. Lenders’ perception of risk and the pledgeability parameter will vary accordingly. The resulting dynamic law of motion is two-dimensional and discontinuous. We show that switching between beliefs fundamentally affects the stability of the system confirming that changes in credit market sentiments drive volatility. However, we also find instances in which behavioral regime switches have a stabilizing effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:50:y:2019:i:c:p:159-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.06.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit cycles; Financial frictions; Market sentiments; Behavioral inertia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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