IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/15-e-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting the Model of Credit Cycles with Good and Bad Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Kiminori Matsuyama

    (Northwestern University (E-mail:k-matsuyama@ northwestern.edu))

  • Iryna Sushko

    (Institute of Mathematics, National Academy of Science of Ukraine (E-mail: sushko@imath.kiev.ua))

  • Laura Gardini

    (University of Urbino (E-mail:laura.gardini@uniurb.it))

Abstract

The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it reformulates the model of endogenous credit cycles by Matsuyama (2013, Sections 2-4). It is shown that the same dynamical system that generates the equilibrium trajectory can be obtained under a much simpler set of assumptions. Such a streamlined presentation should help to highlight the key mechanisms through which financial frictions cause instability and persistent fluctuations. Second, it discusses the nature of fluctuations in greater detail for the case where the production function of the final good sector is Cobb-Douglas. For example, the unique steady state possesses corridor stability (i.e., stable against small shocks but unstable against large shocks) for empirically relevant parameter values. This also means that, when a parameter change causes the steady state to lose its stability, its effects are catastrophic and irreversible so that even a small, temporary shock could have large, permanent effects on volatility. Other notable features of the present model include an immediate transition from the stable steady state to a stable asymmetric cycle of period n >= 3, along which n -1 >= 2 consecutive periods of gradual expansion is followed by one period of sharp downturn, or to robust chaotic attractors.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiminori Matsuyama & Iryna Sushko & Laura Gardini, 2015. "Revisiting the Model of Credit Cycles with Good and Bad Projects," IMES Discussion Paper Series 15-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:15-e-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/15-E-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397.
    2. ,, 2013. "The good, the bad, and the ugly: An inquiry into the causes and nature of credit cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter.
    5. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-536, June.
    6. Myerson, Roger B., 2014. "Moral-hazard credit cycles with risk-averse agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 74-102.
    7. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    8. Francois Melese & William Transue, 1987. "Unscrambling Chaos through Thick and Thin: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 171-171.
    9. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
    10. Roger B. Myerson, 2012. "A Model of Moral-Hazard Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 847-878.
    11. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2008. "Aggregate Implications of Credit Market Imperfections," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 1-60, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Francois Melese & William Transue, 1986. "Unscrambling Chaos Through Thick and Thin," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 419-423.
    13. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    14. Pietro Reichlin & Paolo Siconolfi, 2004. "Optimal debt contracts and moral hazard along the business cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(1), pages 75-109, July.
    15. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2007. "Credit Traps and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 503-516, March.
    16. Alberto Martin, 2004. "Endogenous credit cycles," Economics Working Papers 916, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2008.
    17. Benhabib, Jess & Miyao, Takahiro, 1981. "Some New Results on the Dynamics of the Generalized Tobin Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 589-596, October.
    18. Sushko, Iryna & Gardini, Laura & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2014. "Superstable credit cycles and U-sequence," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 13-27.
    19. Giovanni Favara, 2012. "Agency Problems and Endogenous Investment Fluctuations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2301-2342.
    20. Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Iryna & Naimzada, Ahmad K., 2008. "Growing through chaotic intervals," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 541-557, November.
    21. Iryna Sushko & Laura Gardini & Kiminori Matsuyama, 2014. "Chaos in a Model of Credit Cycles with Good and Bad Projects," Working Papers 1405, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2014.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2019. "Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth," CARF F-Series CARF-F-457, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O., 2021. "Credit cycles, human capital and the distribution of income," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 954-975.
    3. Spiros Bougheas & Pasquale Commendatore & Laura Gardini & Ingrid Kubin, 2022. "Financial Development, Cycles and Income Inequality in a Model with Good and Bad Projects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10135, CESifo.
    4. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
    5. Laura Gardini & Noemi Schmitt & Iryna Sushko & Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff, 2019. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for the roots of a cubic polynomial and bifurcations of codimension-1, -2, -3 for 3D maps," Working Papers 1908, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    6. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Stachurski, John & Vachadze, George, 2018. "Volatile capital flows and financial integration: The role of moral hazard," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 170-192.
    7. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2022. "Financial destabilization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Matsuyama, Kiminori & Ushchev, Philip, 2022. "Destabilizing effects of market size in the dynamics of innovation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Sushko, Iryna & Gardini, Laura & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2016. "Robust chaos in a credit cycle model defined by a one-dimensional piecewise smooth map," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 299-309.
    10. Deng, Liuchun & Khan, M. Ali, 2018. "On growing through cycles: Matsuyama’s M-map and Li–Yorke chaos," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 46-55.
    11. Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Iryna & Tramontana, Fabio, 2021. "Dynamics of a two-dimensional map on nested circles and rings," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Hiroshi Fujiu, 2021. "Business Cycles in a Two-Sided Altruism Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-12, August.
    13. Takao Asano & Masanori Yokoo, 2017. "Chaotic Dynamics of a Piecewise Linear Model of Credit Cycles with Imperfect Observability," KIER Working Papers 967, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Ingrid Kubin & Thomas O. Zörner, 2017. "Human Capital in a Credit Cycle Model," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp251, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2024. "Technology choice, externalities in production, and a chaotic middle-income trap," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 29-56, January.
    16. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    17. Asano, Takao & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-21.
    18. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2023. "Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 342-359.
    19. Spiros Bougheas & Pasquale Commendatore & Laura Gardini & Ingrid Kubin, 2023. "Dynamic investigations of an endogenous business cycle model with heterogeneous agents," Discussion Papers 2023/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2023. "Controlling Chaotic Fluctuations through Monetary Policy," KIER Working Papers 1091, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    22. Andrea Caravaggio & Mauro Sodini, 2022. "Environmental sustainability, nonlinear dynamics and chaos reloaded: 0 matters!," Discussion Papers 2022/287, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    23. Silvo, Aino, 2017. "House prices, lending standards, and the macroeconomy," Research Discussion Papers 4/2017, Bank of Finland.
    24. Silvo, Aino, 2017. "House prices, lending standards, and the macroeconomy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2017, Bank of Finland.
    25. Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Iryna, 2019. "Growing through chaos in the Matsuyama map via subcritical flip bifurcation and bistability," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 52-67.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
    2. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2022. "Financial destabilization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Sushko, Iryna & Gardini, Laura & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2016. "Robust chaos in a credit cycle model defined by a one-dimensional piecewise smooth map," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 299-309.
    4. Figueroa, Nicolás & Leukhina, Oksana, 2018. "Cash flows and credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 318-332.
    5. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Stachurski, John & Vachadze, George, 2018. "Volatile capital flows and financial integration: The role of moral hazard," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 170-192.
    6. Iryna Sushko & Laura Gardini & Kiminori Matsuyama, 2014. "Chaos in a Model of Credit Cycles with Good and Bad Projects," Working Papers 1405, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2014.
    7. Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2014. "Credit Market Imperfections and Macroeconomic Instability," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 592-611, December.
    8. ,, 2013. "The good, the bad, and the ugly: An inquiry into the causes and nature of credit cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
    9. Figueroa, Nicolás & Leukhina, Oksana, 2015. "Lending terms and aggregate productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2001. "Good and Bad Investment: An Inquiry into the Causes of Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1335, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, revised Sep 2001.
    11. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2024. "Technology choice, externalities in production, and a chaotic middle-income trap," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 29-56, January.
    12. Takao Asano & Masanori Yokoo, 2017. "Chaotic Dynamics of a Piecewise Linear Model of Credit Cycles with Imperfect Observability," KIER Working Papers 967, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Ingrid Kubin & Thomas O. Zörner, 2017. "Human Capital in a Credit Cycle Model," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp251, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    14. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    15. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    16. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2017. "Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 406-443.
    17. Wai-Hong Ho, 2017. "Financial market globalization, nonconvergence and credit cycles," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 153-180, May.
    18. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Vachadze, George, 2015. "Financial liberalization: Poverty trap or chaos," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-9.
    19. Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martín, 2022. "Collateral Booms and Information Depletion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 517-555.
    20. Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Iryna, 2019. "Growing through chaos in the Matsuyama map via subcritical flip bifurcation and bistability," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 52-67.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    borrower net worth; composition of credit flows; financial instability; corridor stability; asymmetric cycles; regime-switching; bifurcation analysis of a piecewise smooth nonlinear dynamical system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:15-e-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.