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Animal spirits and credit cycles

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  • de Grauwe, Paul
  • Macchiarelli, Corrado

Abstract

In this paper we extend the behavioral macroeconomic model as proposed by De Grauwe (2012) to include a banking sector. The behavioral model takes the view that agents have limited cognitive abilities. As a result, it is “rational” to use simple forecasting rules and to subject the use of these rules to a fitness test. Agents are then driven to select the rule that performs best. The behavioral model produces endogenous and self-fulfilling movements of optimism and pessimism (animal spirits). Our main result is that the existence of banks intensifies these movements, creating a greater scope for booms and busts. Thus, banks do not create but amplify animal spirits. We find that increases in the equity ratios of banks tend to reduce the importance of animal spirits over the business cycle. The other policy conclusion we derive from our results is that the central bank has an important responsibility for stabilising output: output stabilization is an instrument to “tame the animal spirits”. This has the effect of improving the trade-off between inflation and output volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • de Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63984, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:63984
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    Cited by:

    1. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Overleveraging, Financial Fragility, And The Banking–Macro Link: Theory And Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 4-32, January.
    2. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. Willi Semmler & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Escape Routes from Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro Area," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics,in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 163-193 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    4. Paul De Grauwe & Eddie Gerba, 2015. "Stock Market Cycles and Supply Side Dynamics: Two Worlds, One Vision?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5573, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2018. "No man is an Island: The impact of heterogeneity and local interactions on macroeconomic dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 82-95.
    6. Paul De Grauwe & Eddie Gerba, 2017. "Monetary transmission under competing corporate finance regimes," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 78-100, April.
    7. Gerba, Eddie & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 2068, European Central Bank.
    8. de Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2015. "Stock market cycles and supply side dynamics," FinMaP-Working Papers 45, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    9. repec:spr:joevec:v:27:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s00191-017-0506-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sylvain Barde & Sander van der Hoog, 2017. "An empirical validation protocol for large-scale agent-based models," Studies in Economics 1712, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    11. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi & Illner, Julian, 2014. "Overleveraging in the banking sector: Evidence from Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-066, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    12. de Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2017. "Monetary transmission under competing corporate finance regimes = Transmisión monetaria bajo regímenes alternativos de finanzas corporativas," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67658, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Andrea Boitani & Chiara Punzo, 2018. "Banks’ leverage behaviour in a two-agent New Keynesian model," DEM Working Papers Series 150, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    14. repec:spr:jeicoo:v:12:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11403-015-0167-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Paul De Grauwe & Eddie Gerba, 2017. "Monetary transmission under competing corporate finance regimes," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 46-55, April.
    16. Soldatos, Gerasimos T. & Varelas, Erotokritos, 2017. "Firms’ rational expectations, workers’ psychology, and monetary policy in a behavioral real business cycle model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 129-139.
    17. Jochen Guentner & Elena Afanasyeva, 2017. "Noise-Ridden Lending Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 1211, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Meyer, Björn O., 2014. "The role of sentiment in the provision of credit," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 466, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Animal spirits; Credit cycle; Interest rate spread; Stabilization;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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