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Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility

Author

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  • Gavin Goy
  • Cars Homme
  • Kostas Mavromatis

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous. In particular, we take a stylized New Keynesian model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households. The central bank uses a bivariate VAR to forecast, not taking into account the time-variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations. In this framework, we extend the central bank's toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts (Delphic guidance) and the commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate (Odyssean guidance). We find that both Delphic and Odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap. Even though Odyssean guidance alone appears more powerful, we find it to increase ex post macroeconomic volatility and thus reduce welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:614
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward Guidance; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Bounded Rationality; Central Bank Learning;

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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