IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v38y2019i8p733-748.html

The role of forward‐ and backward‐looking information for inflation expectations formation

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Hubert
  • Harun Mirza

Abstract

Assuming that private forecasters learn inflation dynamics to form their inflation expectations and that they believe a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to capture the true data‐generating process of inflation, we aim at establishing the role of backward‐ and forward‐looking information in the inflation expectation formation process. We find that longer term expectations are crucial in shaping shorter horizon expectations. While the influence of backward‐looking information seems to diminish over time, we do not find evidence of a structural break in the expectation formation process of professional forecasters. Our results further suggest that the weight put on longer term expectations does not solely reflect a mean‐reverting process to trend inflation. Rather, it might also capture beliefs about the central bank's long‐run inflation target and its credibility to achieve inflation stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward‐ and backward‐looking information for inflation expectations formation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 733-748, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:8:p:733-748
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2596
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2596
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2596?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sitikantha Pattanaik & Silu Muduli & Soumyajit Ray, 2020. "Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 244-263, September.
    2. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Post-Print hal-03794336, HAL.
    3. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03794336, HAL.
    4. Hermansson, Cecilia & Lundgren, Berndt, 2022. "What factors matter in rent negotiations? Differences in views between landlords and retail trade tenants," Working Paper Series 22/9, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:8:p:733-748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.