Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information
We provide a tool for estimating DSGE models by Bayesian Maximum-likelihood meth?ods under very general information assumptions. This framework is applied to a New Keynesian model where we compare the standard approach, that assumes an informa?tional asymmetry between private agents and the econometrician, with an assumption of informational symmetry. For the former, private agents observe all state variables including shocks, whereas the econometrician uses only data for output, inflation and interest rates. For the latter both agents have the same imperfect information set and this corresponds to what we term the Â¡Â®informational consistency principleÂ¡Â¯. We first assume rational expectations and then generalize the model to allow some households and firms to form expectations adaptively. We find that in terms of model posterior probabilities, impulse responses, second moments and autocorrelations, the assumption of informational symmetry by rational agents significantly improves the model fit. We also find qualified empirical support for the heterogenous expectations model.
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Volume (Year): 122 (2012)
Issue (Month): 565 (December)
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- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004.
"On the fit and forecasting performance of New Keynesian models,"
2004-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2005. "On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 0491, European Central Bank.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001.
"Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004.
"Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS,"
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Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
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