Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE models
Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model that distinguishes real-time data from final data. Both the consumption habit formation and the price indexation to lagged inflation fall significantly in the estimation. The model also shows that revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. Finally, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 34 948 169340
Fax: 34 948 169 721
Web page: http://www.econ.unavarra.es
|Order Information:|| Postal: Papers are not sent in a centralized mode. You can download them with ftp, or contact the authors.|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edward Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2012.
"Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2012-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999.
"Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
- Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009.
"A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2008. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Norman R. Swanson & Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez, 2011.
"Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets,"
Departmental Working Papers
201107, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Corradi, Valentina & Fernandez, Andres & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 455-467.
- Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez & Norman Swanson, 2008. "Information in the revision process of real-time datasets," Working Papers 08-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:1104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Javier Puértolas)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.