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Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

  • Herbst, Edward
  • Schorfheide, Frank

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well as the Smets and Wouters (2007) model using real-time data. We find that the additional features incorporated into the Smets–Wouters model do not lead to a uniform improvement in the quality of density forecasts and prediction of comovements of output, inflation, and interest rates.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 171 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 152-166

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:171:y:2012:i:2:p:152-166
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  8. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
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  16. Kling, John L & Bessler, David A, 1989. "Calibration-Based Predictive Distributions: An Application of Prequential Analysis to Interest Rates, Money, Prices, and Output," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(4), pages 477-99, October.
  17. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  18. Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 397-433.
  19. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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