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Predictive Density Evaluation


  • Valentina Corradi

    () (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Norman Swanson

    () (Rutgers University)


This Chapter discusses estimation, specification testing, and model selection of predictive density models. In particular, predictive density estimation is briefly discussed. And a variety of different specifications and model evaluation tests due to various authors including Christoffersen and Diebold (2000), Diebold Gunther and Tay (1998), Diebold Hahn and Tay (1999), White (2000), Bai (2003), Corradi and Swanson (2003 and 2004(a),(b),(c)), Hong and Li (2003), and others are reviewed. Extensions of some existing techniques to the case of out-of-sample evaluation are also provided, and asymptotic results associated with these extensions are outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predictive Density Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200419, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200419

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, January.
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    3. Blomquist, Soren & Dahlberg, Matz, 1999. "Small Sample Properties of LIML and Jackknife IV Estimators: Experiments with Weak Instruments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 69-88, Jan.-Feb..
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    6. Smith, Richard J, 1997. "Alternative Semi-parametric Likelihood Approaches to Generalised Method of Moments Estimation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 503-519, March.
    7. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Split-Sample Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Return to Schooling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 225-235, April.
    8. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, July.
    9. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-681, May.
    10. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    12. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1673-1692, September.
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    14. Morimune, Kimio, 1983. "Approximate Distributions of k-Class Estimators When the Degree of Overidentifiability Is Large Compared with the Sample Size," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 821-841, May.
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    16. Phillips, Garry D A & Hale, C, 1977. "The Bias of Instrumental Variable Estimators of Simultaneous Equation Systems," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-228, February.
    17. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Asymptotic Normality of Single-Equation Estimators for the Case with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Departmental Working Papers 200312, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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    More about this item


    Predictive density;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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