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DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve

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  • Frank Schorfheide

Abstract

This paper surveys estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) parameters that have been obtained by fitting fully specified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models to U.S. data. We examine various sources of identification in the context of a simple analytical model. DSGE model-based NKPC estimates tend to be fragile and sensitive to the model specification, in particular if marginal costs are treated as an unobserved variable. Estimates of the NKPC slope lie between 0 and 4. If the observations span the labor share, which is in most instances the model-implied measure of marginal costs, then the slope estimates fall into a much narrower range of 0.005 to 0.135. No consensus has emerged with respect to the importance of lagged inflation in the Phillips curve.

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  • Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 397-433.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2008:i:fall:p:397-433:n:v.94no.4
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    Cited by:

    1. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2015. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 126-154.
    2. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in Uganda: A Quantile Regression Approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-07, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    3. Michelacci, Claudio & Paciello, Luigi, 2017. "Ambiguous Policy Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 11754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gianluca Violante & Benjamin Moll & Greg Kaplan, 2015. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," 2015 Meeting Papers 1507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2008. "Policy implications of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 435-465.
    6. Orland, Andreas & Roos, Michael W.M., 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve with myopic agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2270-2286.
    7. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Anastasia Zhutova, 2015. "Labor Market Policies and the "Missing Deflation" Puzzle: Lessons from Hoover Policies during the U.S Great Depression," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 15.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    8. Herbst, Edward & Schorfheide, Frank, 2012. "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 152-166.
    9. Michael U. Krause & Stéphane Moyen, 2016. "Public Debt and Changing Inflation Targets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 142-176, October.
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    12. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2013. "Autoregression-based estimation of the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 561-570.
    13. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2010. "Contractionary Effects of Supply Shocks: Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation," Working Papers 131, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
    14. Stefan Leist & Klaus Neusser, 2010. "Measuring the Natural Output Level by DSGE Models: An Empirical Investigation for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 275-300, March.
    15. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
    16. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," 2009 Meeting Papers 1034, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    18. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
    19. Kim, Insu & Yie, Myung-Soo, 2016. "Trend inflation, firms' backward-looking behavior, and inflation gap persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 116-125.
    20. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2016. "Managing Heterogeneous and Unanchored Expectations: A Monetary Policy Analysis," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    21. Kim, Insu, 2009. "Dual Wage Rigidities: Theory and Some Evidence," MPRA Paper 21494, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
    22. Cúrdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2015. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-83.
    23. Carlos C. Bautista, 2009. "An examination of Philippine monetary policy rules," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 200912, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    24. Engin Kara, 2009. "Micro data on nominal rigidity, inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 175, National Bank of Belgium.
    25. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2012. "Prince-setting, monetary policy and the contractionary effects of productivity improvements," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0161, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.

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    Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve;

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