Uncertainty over models and data: the rise and fall of American inflation
An economic agent who is uncertain of her model updates her beliefs in response to the data. The updating is sensitive to measurement error which, in many cases of macroeconomic interest, is apparent from the process of data revision. I make this point through simple illustrations and then analyze a recent model of the Federal Reserve's role in U.S. inflation. The existing model succeeds at fitting inflation to optimal policy, but fails to link inflation to the economic trade-off at the heart of the story. I modify the model to account for data uncertainty and find that doing so ameliorates the existing problems. This suggests that the Fed's model uncertainty is largely overestimated by ignoring data uncertainty. Consequently, now there is an explanation for the rise and fall in inflation: the concurrent rise and fall in the perceived Philips curve trade-off.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson & Myles Callan, 2002.
"Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty,"
Southern Economic Journal,
Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 239-265, October.
- Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001.
"Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2004.
"Regime switching and monetary policy measurement,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1577-1597, November.
- Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2001. "Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt24q32688, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Michael T. Owyang & Garey Ramey, 2003. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Working Papers 2001-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006.
"Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 366-375, 04-05.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2005-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides amd John Williams, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 254, Society for Computational Economics.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
- Carboni, Giacomo & Ellison, Martin, 2007. "Learning and the Great Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Boivin, Jean, 2006.
"Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
- Jean Boivin, 2005. "Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," NBER Working Papers 11314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Alastair Cunningham & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2007. "A State Space Approach To The Policymaker's Data Uncertainty Problem," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 168, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.