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The Great Inflation and the Greenbook

  • Carboni, Giacomo
  • Ellison, Martin

Can the story of evolving Federal Reserve beliefs in The Conquest of American Inflation simultaneously explain the Great Inflation and the forecasts published in the Greenbook during that time? If Sargent is correct then evolving beliefs should be reflected not only in policy outcomes but also in Greenbook forecasts. In this paper they are. By conditioning on the Greenbook, it is show that both inflation outcomes and Greenbook forecasts can be rationalised by evolving beliefs. The results improve on recent empirical evidence that has been criticised for relying on unrealistic beliefs that produce forecasts inconsistent with the Greenbook.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (September)
Pages: 831-841

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:6:p:831-841
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  3. Peter N. Ireland, 2003. "Irrational expectations and econometric practice: discussion of Orphanides and Williams, "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy"," Working Paper 2003-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Sharon Kozicki & Peter Tinsley, 2005. "Minding the gap : central bank estimates of the unemployment natural rate," Research Working Paper RWP 05-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
  6. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
  7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  8. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams, 2003. "Impacts of priors on convergence and escapes from Nash inflation," Working Paper 2003-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  10. Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March.
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