Learning and the Great Inflation
We respond to the challenge of explaining the Great Inflation by building a coherent framework in which both learning and uncertainty play a central role. At the heart of our story is a Federal Reserve that learns and then disregards the Phillips curve as in Sargent's Conquest of American Inflation, but at all times takes into account that its view of the world is subject to considerable uncertainties. Allowing Federal Reserve policy to react to these perceived uncertainties improves our ability to explain the Great Inflation with a learning model. Bayesian MCMC estimation results are encouraging and favour a model where policy reacts to uncertainty over a model where uncertainty is ignored. The posterior likelihood is higher and the internal Federal Reserve forecasts implied by the model are closer to those reported in the Greenbook.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004.
"Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation,"
2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 10764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, .
"Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US,"
2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
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- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005.
"The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty,"
Working Paper Series
0478, European Central Bank.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
- In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Escaping Nash Inflation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
- Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Noah William, 2005.
"Impacts of Priors on Convergence and Escapes from Nash Inflation,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 360-391, April.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams, 2003. "Impacts of priors on convergence and escapes from Nash inflation," Working Paper 2003-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- William Poole, 2002. "Flation," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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