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The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners

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  • James Bullard
  • Jacek Suda

Abstract

We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in the analysis here are Bayesian learners. We are interested in the extent to which expectational stability remains the key concept in the Bayesian environment. We isolate conditions under which versions of expectational stability conditions govern the stability of these systems just as in the standard case of recursive learning. We conclude that Bayesian learning schemes, while they are more sophisticated, do not alter the essential expectational stability findings in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • James Bullard & Jacek Suda, 2015. "The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners," NBP Working Papers 228, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gerba, Eddie & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 2068, European Central Bank.
    3. Frank Hespeler & Marco M. Sorge, 2018. "Does Near†Rationality Matter In First†Order Approximate Solutions? A Perturbation Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 97-113, January.
    4. Emanuele Brancati & Marco Macchiavelli, 2020. "Endogenous debt maturity and rollover risk," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 69-90, March.
    5. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Emanuele Brancati & Marco Macchiavelli, 2015. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Pricing Default: Evidence from the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-79, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2011. "On the Solution of Markov-switching Rational Expectations Models," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 05/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    8. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.
    9. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
    10. Milani, Fabio, 2014. "Learning and time-varying macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 94-114.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectational stability; recursive learning; learnability of rational expectations equilibrium; Bayesian learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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