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Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles

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  • Gerba, Eddie
  • Żochowski, Dawid

Abstract

The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are uncertain about a new state of the economy following a financial innovation. To this end, we extend Boz and Mendoza (2014) by explicitly modelling the credit markets and by modifying the learning to an adaptive set-up. In our model the build-up of leverage and the collateral price cycles takes longer than in a stylized DSGE model with financial frictions. The boom-bust cycles occur as rare events, with two systemic crises per century. Financial stability is achieved with an LTV-cap regulation which smooths the leverage cycles through quantity (higher equity participation requirement) and price (lower collateral value) effects, as well as by providing an anchor in the learning process of agents. JEL Classification: G14, G17, G21, G32, E44, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Gerba, Eddie & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 2068, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172068
    Note: 2148517
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2068.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:fth:starer:98-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Paolo Gelain & Marcin Kolasa, 2014. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with multiperiod loans," NBP Working Papers 192, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
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    5. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
    6. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
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    9. Bullard, James & Suda, Jacek, 2016. "The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-16.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
    11. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Anticipated Utility And Rational Expectations As Approximations Of Bayesian Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 185-221, February.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2017-06-14 01:13:22

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    Cited by:

    1. De Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2018. "The role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 206-236.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    deregulation; financial engineering; leverage forecasting; macroprudential policy; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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