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Expectations in Macroeconomics. Adaptive versus Eductive Learning


  • George W. Evans


[fre] Les anticipations macroéconomiques : l'apprentissage adaptatif et divinatoire. . Les solutions à anticipations rationnelles dans les modèles macroéconomiques décrivent des équilibres qui exigent la coordination des anticipations, et on peut examiner la stabilité locale des ces solutions à la lumière de règles alternatives d'apprentissage. Les approches divinatoires (mentales) à l'apprentissage conduisent à des conditions plus strictes que les approches adaptatives (statistiques) : on illustre cette proposition à l'aide de trois modèles économiques. Le principe de expectational stability clarifie la connexion entre les conditions correspondantes de stabilité. Ce principe éclaire aussi les dynamiques d'apprentissage persistantes qui se produiraient avec des règles modifiées d'apprentissage adaptatif. [eng] Rational expectations solutions to macroeconomic models are equilibria requiring the coordination of expectations, and one can investigate the local stability of these solutions under alternative learning rules. Eductive (mental) approaches to learning have somewhat stricter stability conditions than do adaptive (statistical) approaches, as we illustrate using three economic models. The expectational stability principle can be used to understand the relationship between the corresponding stability conditions. This principle also provides insight into the persistent learning dynamics that can arise under modified adaptive learning rules.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans, 2001. "Expectations in Macroeconomics. Adaptive versus Eductive Learning," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(3), pages 573-582.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_3_410338
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2001.410338

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lars Gårn Hansen, 1996. "Water and Energy Price Impacts on Residential Water Demand in Copenhagen," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 72(1), pages 66-79.
    3. Michael L. Nieswiadomy & David J. Molina, 1989. "Comparing Residential Water Demand Estimates under Decreasing and Increasing Block Rates Using Household Data," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 65(3), pages 280-289.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2005. "Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 202-229, October.
    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
    3. Fred Schroyen & Adekola Oyenuga, 2011. "Optimal pricing and capacity choice for a public service under risk of interruption," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 252-272, June.
    4. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria," MPRA Paper 24616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bao, Te & Duffy, John, 2016. "Adaptive versus eductive learning: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 64-89.
    6. G. Gaballo, 2014. "Sequential Coordination, Higher-Order Belief Dynamics and E-Stability Principle," Working papers 509, Banque de France.
    7. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2014. "Sequential coordination, higher-order belief dynamics and the E-stability principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-279.

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