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The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning

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  • Pablo Aguilar

    () (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU))

  • Jesús Vázquez

    () (Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU))

Abstract

Agents can learn from financial markets to predict macroeconomic outcomes and learning dynamics can feed back into both the macroeconomy and financial markets. This paper builds on the adaptive learning (AL) model of Slobodyan andWouters (2012b) by introducing the term structure of interest rates. This feature results in more stable learning coefficients over the whole sample period. Our estimation results show that the inclusion of the term spread in the AL model results in an increase of the parameters characterizing endogenous persistence whereas the persistence of the exogenous shocks driving price and wage dynamics decreases. Moreover, the estimated model shows that the term spread innovations are an important source of persistent fluctuations under AL. This finding stands in sharp contrast to the lack of transmission of term premium shocks to the macroeconomy under rational expectations. Furthermore, our empirical results show that our extended model with term structure does an overall better job when reproducing U.S. business cycle features.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2015. "The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2015007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2015007
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    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2015007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term spread; adaptive learning; learning coefficients variability; medium-scale DSGE model;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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