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Real-Time, Adaptive Learning via Parameterized Expectations

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  • Michele Berardi
  • John Duffy

Abstract

We explore real time, adaptive nonlinear learning dynamics in stochastic macroeconomic systems. Rather than linearizing nonlinear Euler equations where expectations play a role around a steady state, we instead approximate the nonlinear expected values using the method of parameterized expectations. Further we suppose that these approximated expectations are updated in real time as new data become available. We explore whether this method of real-time parameterized expectations learning provides a plausible alternative to real-time adaptive learning dynamics under linearized versions of the same nonlinear system.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Berardi & John Duffy, 2010. "Real-Time, Adaptive Learning via Parameterized Expectations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 147, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:147
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    File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr147.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:lrc:lareco:v:5:y:2017:i:5:p:12-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Berardi Michele, 2012. "Heterogeneous Learning Dynamics and Speed of Convergence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Casares, Miguel & Vázquez, Jesús, 2016. "Data Revisions In The Estimation Of Dsge Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(07), pages 1683-1716, October.
    4. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    5. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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