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Monetary policy with heterogeneous and misspecified expectations

  • Michele Berardi

In recent literature on monetary policy and learning, it has been suggested that private sector’s expectations should play a role in the policy rule implemented by the central bank, as they could improve the ability of the policymaker to stabilize the economy. Private sector’s expectations, in these studies, are often taken to be homogeneous and rational, at least in the limit of a learning process. In this paper, instead, we consider the case in which private agents are heterogeneous in their expectations formation mechanisms and hold heterogeneous expectations in equilibrium. We investigates the impact of this heterogeneity in expectations on central bank’s policy implementation and on the ensuing economic outcomes.

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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 81.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:81
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  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-11, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2005.
  2. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Giuseppe Ferrero, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Transition to Rational Expectations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 101, Econometric Society.
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Recent developments in the analysis of monetary policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-12.
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  8. Krisztina Molnar & Sergio Santoro, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Agents are Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 40, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
  10. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," CESifo Working Paper Series 772, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-6, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 03 Aug 2001.
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Nunes, Ricardo, 2009. "Learning The Inflation Target," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 167-188, April.
  16. Berardi, Michele & Duffy, John, 2007. "The value of central bank transparency when agents are learning," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 9-29, March.
  17. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  18. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  19. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
  20. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
  21. Branch William & McGough Bruce, 2004. "Multiple Equilibria in Heterogeneous Expectations Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
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