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Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations

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  • Gasteiger, Emanuel

Abstract

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous expectations. To this end, we develop a stochastic New Keynesian model with a cost-push shock and coexistence of one-step-ahead rational and adaptive expectations in decentralized markets. On the one side, heterogeneous expectations imply an amplification mechanism that has many adverse consequences missing under the rational expectations paradigm. On the other side, even discretionary optimal monetary policy can manipulate expectations via a novel channel. We argue that the incorporation of heterogeneous expectations in both the design and implemen tation of discretionary optimal monetary policy to exploit this channel lowers macroeconomic volatility. We find that: (1.) surprisingly, a more hawkish policy can reduce losses due to volatility, but an overly hawkish policy does not; (2.) overestimating the share of rational expectations in the design and implementation of policy creates additional losses, while the underestimation does not; (3.) credible commitment eliminates or mitigates many of the ramifications of heterogeneous expectations.

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  • Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2021, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuweco:042021
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    Cited by:

    1. Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2020. "Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 249-273, August.
    2. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    5. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    heterogeneous expectations; optimal monetary policy; policy design; policy implementation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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