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The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning

Author

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  • Duffy, John

    (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Xiao, Wei

    (University of New Orleans)

Abstract

We examine the expectational stability (E—stability) of rational expectations equilibrium under optimal interest rate rules in the context of the standard, “New Keynesian” model of the monetary transmission mechanism. We focus on the case where the monetary authority adds interest rate stabilization to its other objectives of inflation and output stabilization. We consider both the case where the monetary authority lacks a commitment technology and as well as the case of full commitment. We show that for both cases, optimal interest rate rules yield rational expectations equilibria that are E-stable for a wide range of empirically plausible parameter values. This finding stands in contrast to the findings of Evans and Honkapohja (2002, 2003ab) for optimal monetary policy rules in environments where interest rate stabilization is not part of the central bank’s objective function.

Suggested Citation

  • Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2004. "The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning," Working Papers 2004-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:uno:wpaper:2004-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2004. "Learning and the central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 327-338, March.
    2. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 43-56.
    5. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
    7. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1425-1483.
    8. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 15-38, March.
    10. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    11. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April.
    12. Berardi, Michele, 2008. "Should monetary policy respond to private sector expectations?," MPRA Paper 19285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2005. "Determinacy, learnability, and discretionary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 181-185, May.
    2. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Time-Varying Parameters and Endogenous Learning Algorithms," Working Papers 13-02, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    3. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo & Tuesta, Vicente, 2009. "Learning about monetary policy rules when the cost-channel matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1880-1896, November.
    4. Goyal, Ashima & Tripathi, Shruti, 2014. "Stability and Transitions in Emerging Market Policy Rules," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 153-172.
    5. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Giannini, Bianca, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 373-387.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 5, pages 145-170 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.
    9. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
    10. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    11. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 439-453, October.
    12. Eric Gaus & Srikanth Ramamurthy, 2012. "Learning and Loss Functions: Comparing Optimal and Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 14-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectational stability (E-stability); Rational expectations equilibrium; Monetary transmission mechanism;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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