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The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning

Author

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  • Duffy, John

    (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Xiao, Wei

    (University of New Orleans)

Abstract

We examine the expectational stability (E—stability) of rational expectations equilibrium under optimal interest rate rules in the context of the standard, “New Keynesian” model of the monetary transmission mechanism. We focus on the case where the monetary authority adds interest rate stabilization to its other objectives of inflation and output stabilization. We consider both the case where the monetary authority lacks a commitment technology and as well as the case of full commitment. We show that for both cases, optimal interest rate rules yield rational expectations equilibria that are E-stable for a wide range of empirically plausible parameter values. This finding stands in contrast to the findings of Evans and Honkapohja (2002, 2003ab) for optimal monetary policy rules in environments where interest rate stabilization is not part of the central bank’s objective function.

Suggested Citation

  • Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2004. "The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning," Working Papers 2004-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:uno:wpaper:2004-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2004. "Learning and the central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 327-338, March.
    2. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Mar), pages 43-56.
    3. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 15-38, March.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
    7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April.
    9. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    10. repec:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:0:p:1-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Berardi, Michele, 2008. "Should monetary policy respond to private sector expectations?," MPRA Paper 19285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
    13. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    14. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1425-1483.
    15. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    16. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo & Tuesta, Vicente, 2009. "Learning about monetary policy rules when the cost-channel matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1880-1896, November.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Goyal, Ashima & Tripathi, Shruti, 2014. "Stability and Transitions in Emerging Market Policy Rules," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 153-172.
    4. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Giannini, Bianca, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 373-387.
    5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 5, pages 145-170, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
    7. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.
    8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(May), pages 203-217.
    10. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 5, pages 145-170, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Eric Gaus, 2012. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 13-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2012.
    14. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2005. "Determinacy, learnability, and discretionary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 181-185, May.
    15. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Time-Varying Parameters and Endogenous Learning Algorithms," Working Papers 13-02, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    16. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    18. Eric Gaus & Srikanth Ramamurthy, 2012. "Learning and Loss Functions: Comparing Optimal and Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 14-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2013.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_031 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 439-453, October.
    21. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 5, pages 145-170, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectational stability (E-stability); Rational expectations equilibrium; Monetary transmission mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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