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Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning

Recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model (Duffy and Xiao 2007, Evans and Honkapoja 2009). This paper builds on this research by examining an economy subject to a variety of monetary policy rules under an endogenous learning algorithm proposed by Marcet and Nicolini (2003). The results indicate that operational versions of optimal discretionary rules are not "robustly stable" as in Evans and Honkapoja (2009). In addition commitment rules are not robust to minor changes in expectational structure and parameter values.

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File URL: http://webpages.ursinus.edu/egaus/Research/GausPolicyInstability.pdf
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Paper provided by Ursinus College, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 13-01.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 12 Jul 2012
Date of revision: 14 Dec 2012
Publication status: Published
Handle: RePEc:urs:urswps:13-01
Contact details of provider: Postal: Ursinus College 601 East Main St. Collegeville, PA 19426
Web page: http://webpages.ursinus.edu/ecba/

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  2. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  3. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
  5. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend inflation, Taylor principle and indeterminacy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 708, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Monetary policy, expectations and commitment," Working Paper Series 0124, European Central Bank.
  7. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
  8. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2004. "The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning," Working Papers 2004-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
  9. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  10. Jensen, Christian & McCallum, Bennett T., 2002. "The non-optimality of proposed monetary policy rules under timeless perspective commitment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 163-168, October.
  11. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  12. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
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