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Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when the Cost Channel Matters

Author

Listed:
  • Llosa Gonzalo

    (UCLA)

  • Tuesta Vicente

    () (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

We study how the stability of rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy when agents learn using adaptive learning (E-stability concept) and the cost channel of monetary policy matters. We focus on both instrumental taylor-type rules and optimal rules. We show, analytically, that standard instrument rules -contemporaneous and forecast based rules - can easily induce indeterminacy and expectational instability when the cost channel is present. Overall, a naive application of the Taylor principle in this setting could be misleading. Regarding optimal rules, we find that "expectational-based" rules, under discretion and commitment, do not always induce determinate and E-stable equilibrium. This result stands in contrast to the findings of Evans and Honkapohja (2003) for for the baseline “New Keynessian" model.

Suggested Citation

  • Llosa Gonzalo & Tuesta Vicente, 2007. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when the Cost Channel Matters," Working Papers 2007-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 15-38, March.
    2. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
    3. Marvin J. Barth III & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 199-256 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
    6. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    7. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Hoffmann, Mathias & Schabert, Andreas, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 995-1016, May.
    8. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
    10. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2006. "Determinacy and expectational stability of equilibrium in a monetary sticky-price model with Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 827-846, May.
    11. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
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    15. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    16. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
    17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    18. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents Are Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2041-2056, December.
    19. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    21. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1425-1483.
    22. Surico, Paolo, 2008. "The Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy And Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 724-735, November.
    23. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Araújo, Eurilton, 2016. "Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in a small-open economy with sticky wages and prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 16-32.
    2. Airaudo, Marco & Cardani, Roberta & Lansing, Kevin J., 2013. "Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1453-1478.
    3. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Volker Wieland, 2009. "Learning, Endogenous Indexation, and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 11, pages 413-450 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2013. "Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 286-296.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2014. "Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 631-650, April.
    8. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    9. Airaudo, Marco, 2014. "Currency substitution, risk premia and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-217.
    10. Carla Ysusi, 2009. "Analysis of the Dynamics of Mexican Inflation Using Wavelets," Working Papers 2009-09, Banco de México.
    11. Walter Bazan-Palomino & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2014. " The New Keynesian Framework for a Small Open Economy with Structural Breaks: Empirical Evidence from Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2014-384, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    12. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-82.
    13. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:350-382 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2010. "The Taylor principle and (in-)determinacy in a New Keynesian model with hiring frictions and skill loss," Working Paper Research 208, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Romina Bafile & Alessandro Piergallini, 2017. "Firms’ money demand and monetary policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 350-382, August.
    16. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012. "Testing the Structural Interpretation of the Price Puzzle with a Cost-Channel Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 425-452, June.
    17. Airaudo, Marco, 2012. "Endogenous Dollarization, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Taylor Principle," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    18. Totzek, Alexander, 2011. "Banks, oligopolistic competition, and the business cycle: A new financial accelerator approach," Economics Working Papers 2011-02, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    19. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Rules; Cost Channel; Indeterminacy;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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