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Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when the Cost Channel Matters

  • Llosa Gonzalo

    (UCLA)

  • Tuesta Vicente

    ()

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

We study how the stability of rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy when agents learn using adaptive learning (E-stability concept) and the cost channel of monetary policy matters. We focus on both instrumental taylor-type rules and optimal rules. We show, analytically, that standard instrument rules -contemporaneous and forecast based rules - can easily induce indeterminacy and expectational instability when the cost channel is present. Overall, a naive application of the Taylor principle in this setting could be misleading. Regarding optimal rules, we find that "expectational-based" rules, under discretion and commitment, do not always induce determinate and E-stable equilibrium. This result stands in contrast to the findings of Evans and Honkapohja (2003) for for the baseline “New Keynessian" model.

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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2007-014.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-014
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  1. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-11, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2005.
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Marc Paolo Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1425-1483.
  5. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  7. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
  9. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  11. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  13. Marvin J. Barth III & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 199-256 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
  15. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  17. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  19. Takushi Kurozumi, 2006. "Determinacy and Expectational Stability of Equilibrium in a Monetary Sticky-Price Model with Taylor Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-2, Bank of Japan.
  20. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents Are Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2041-2056, December.
  21. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  22. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
  23. Bruckner, Matthias & Schabert, Andreas, 2003. "Supply-side effects of monetary policy and equilibrium multiplicity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 205-211, May.
  24. Surico, Paolo, 2008. "The Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy And Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 724-735, November.
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