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Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia

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  • Emanuel Gasteiger

    () (Instituto Universitario de Lisboa)

Abstract

The design and analysis of optimal monetary policy is usually guided by the paradigm of homogeneous rational expectations. Instead, we examine the dynamic consequences of implementation strategies, when the actual economy features expectational heterogeneity. Agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. Consequently the central bank's ability to achieve price-stability under heterogeneous expectations depends on its objective and implementation strategy. An expectations-based reaction function, which appropriately conditions on private sector expectations, performs exceptionally well. However, once the objective introduces policy inertia, popular strategies can fail. These results call for new implementation strategies under interest rate stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," CDMA Working Paper Series 201308, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. repec:eee:jmacro:v:60:y:2019:i:c:p:20-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Working Papers JRC111603, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    4. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    5. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Giannini, Bianca, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 373-387.
    6. repec:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:08:p:2107-2140_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "The Rationality Bias," BERG Working Paper Series 144, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    8. repec:eee:dyncon:v:101:y:2019:i:c:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    10. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco, 2019. "Beliefs formation and the puzzle of forward guidance power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-32.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2018. "Do Heterogeneous Expectations Constitute A Challenge For Policy Interaction?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(08), pages 2107-2140, December.
    13. repec:eee:dyncon:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:25-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Monetary Policy; Heterogeneous Expectations; Policy Inertia;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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