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Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations

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  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni
  • Di Pietro Marco
  • Giannini Bianca

Abstract

In a world where expectations are heterogeneous, what is the design of the optimal policy? Are canonical policies robust when heterogeneous expectations are considered or would they be associated with large welfare losses? We aim to answer these questions in a stylized simple New Keynesian model where agents׳ beliefs are not homogeneous. Assuming that a fraction of agents can form their expectations by some adaptive or extrapolative schemes, we focus on an optimal monetary policy by second-order approximation of the policy objective from the consumers׳ utility function. We find that the introduction of bounded rationality in the New Keynesian framework matters. The presence of heterogeneous agents adds a new dimension to the central bank׳s optimization problem—consumption inequality. Optimal policies must be designed to stabilize the cross-variability of heterogeneous expectations. In fact, as long as different individual consumption plans depend on different expectation paths, a central bank aiming to reduce consumption inequality should minimize the cross-sectional variability of expectations. Moreover, the traditional trade-off between the price dispersion and aggregate consumption variability is also quantitatively affected by heterogeneity.
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Suggested Citation

  • Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Di Pietro Marco & Giannini Bianca, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," wp.comunite 0119, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:0119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    2. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Working Papers JRC111603, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    3. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:2:p:79-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Pietro, Marco, 2017. "Beliefs formation and the puzzle of forward guidance power," EconStor Preprints 175198, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    5. Duncan, Roberto & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique, 2018. "New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 338, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2015. "Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-087/II, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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