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The science of monetary policy: an imperfect knowledge perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Eusepi
  • Bruce Preston

Abstract

New Keynesian theory identifies a set of principles central to the design and implementation of monetary policy. These principles rely on the ability of a central bank to manage expectations precisely, with policy prescriptions typically derived under the assumption of perfect information and full rationality. In consequence the prevailing policy regime is credible and correctly understood by market participants. Despite considerable advances in understanding, recent events have engendered a reevaluation of the theory and practice of monetary policy. The challenging macroeconomic environment bequeathed by the financial crisis has led many to question the efficacy of monetary policy, and, particularly, question whether central banks can influence expectations with as much control as previously thought. The objective of this survey is to review what is understood about the challenges to the New Keynesian paradigm posed by imperfect knowledge and to assess the degree of confidence with which one should hold the basic prescriptions of modern monetary economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2016. "The science of monetary policy: an imperfect knowledge perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2016-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Calvert Jump & Cars Hommes & Paul Levine, 2018. "Learning, Heterogeneity, and Complexity in the New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 20181807, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:21-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Transparency, expectations anchoring and inflation target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 261-273.
    4. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Research Discussion Papers 9/2018, Bank of Finland.
    5. Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc P. & Preston, Bruce, 2018. "Some implications of learning for price stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-20.
    6. repec:cii:cepiie:2019-q2-158-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eleni Iliopulos & Erica Perego & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2018. "International business cycles: Information matters," THEMA Working Papers 2018-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    8. Hannes Draack, 2018. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Signals: The Target Problem in a New Monetarist Approach," ECON - Working Papers 296, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.
    10. Özge Dilaver & Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2018. "Agent‐Based Macroeconomics And Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1134-1159, September.
    11. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2014. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 1/2015, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    12. repec:eaa:aeinde:v:19:y:2019:i:1_3 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:jmacro:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:59-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul Author-X-Name_First: Phurichai, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 816, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2014. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 1/2015, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    16. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).
    17. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    18. repec:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:3:p:994-1007 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:eee:inteco:v:158:y:2019:i:c:p:12-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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