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Imperfect information and the business cycle

  • Collard, Fabrice
  • Dellas, Harris
  • Smets, Frank

Imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory. This paper assesses its importance by estimating the New Keynesian (NK) model under alternative informational assumptions. One version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances. Another, on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the central bank. A third on persistent misperceptions of the state of the economy (measurement error). And a fourth assumes perfect information (the standard NK{DSGE version). Imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations. Signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory, empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7643.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7643
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  1. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2010. "Monetary Misperceptions, Output and Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 7644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-84, December.
  3. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  5. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  6. de Walque, G. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2005. "Price setting in General Equilibrium: Alternative Specifications," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 370, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Dellas, Harris, 2006. "Monetary Shocks and Inflation Dynamics in the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 543-551, March.
  8. Lippi, Francesco & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "Information variables for monetary policy in an estimated structural model of the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1256-1270, May.
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