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Imperfect information and the business cycle

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  • Collard, Fabrice
  • Dellas, Harris
  • Smets, Frank

Abstract

Imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory. This paper assesses its importance by estimating the new Keynesian (NK) model under alternative informational assumptions. One version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances. Another, on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the Central Bank. A third on persistent mis-perceptions of the state of the economy (measurement error). And a fourth assumes perfect information (the standard NK-DSGE version). Imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations. Signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory, empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank, 2009. "Imperfect information and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 38-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:s:p:s38-s56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nebile KORUCU GUMUSOGLU & Julide YILDIRIM & Semsettin KARASU, "undated". "The Effect of Civilian Unemploment on Reenlistment Decision in Turkish Armed Forces," EcoMod2010 259600095, EcoMod.
    2. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    3. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Real‐Time Data and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 651-674, June.
    4. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Anxious periods and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Giovanni Lombardo & Peter McAdam, 2010. "Incorporating financial frictions into new-generation macro models," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 13-16.
    6. Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2016. "Information rigidities in survey data: Evidence from dispersions in forecasts and forecast revisions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 10-14.
    7. Matthew Canzoneri & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas & Behzad Diba, 2012. "Withering Government Spending Multipliers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 185-210, December.
    8. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    9. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
    10. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2012. "Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1287-1312, December.
    11. Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2010. "Bank lending standards and the origins and implications of the current banking crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 6-9.
    12. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2010. "Financial conditions and monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 10-12.
    13. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1012, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    14. Frank Smets & Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "DSGE models and their use at the ECB," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, March.
    15. Vega, Hugo, 2010. "Total factor productivity and signal noise volatility in an incomplete information setting," Working Papers 2010-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    16. Cornelia Holthausen & Huw Pill, 2010. "The forgotten markets: How understanding money markets helps us to understand the financial crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 2-5.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian model; Imperfect information; Signal extraction; Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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