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Kinked Demand Curves, the Natural Rate Hypothesis, and Macroeconomic Stability

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  • Takushi Kurozumi

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Willem Van Zandweghe

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

Abstract

Previous literature shows that in the presence of staggered price setting, high trend inflation induces not only a large loss in steady-state output relative to its natural rate but also indeterminacy of equilibrium under the Taylor rule. This paper examines the implications of a "smoothed-off" kink in demand curves for the natural rate hypothesis and macroeconomic stability using a canonical model with staggered price setting. An empirically plausible calibration of the model demonstrates that the kink in demand curves mitigates the influence of high trend inflation on aggregate output through the average markup and (when relevant) the relative price distortion, thereby ensuring that the violation of the natural rate hypothesis is minor and preventing indeterminacy caused by high trend inflation. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2016. "Kinked Demand Curves, the Natural Rate Hypothesis, and Macroeconomic Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 240-257, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:13-259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2015.02.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2022. "Macroeconomic changes with declining trend inflation: Complementarity with the superstar firm hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics:A Bayesian GMM Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 506-520, December.
    4. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 1961-2000, December.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Wille Van Zandweghe, 2023. "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 867-887, December.
    6. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    7. Ishise, Hirokazu, 2022. "Optimal long-run inflation rate in an open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    8. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2014. "A pitfall of expectational stability analysis," Research Working Paper RWP 14-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Dohyun CHUN & Hoon CHO & Doojin RYU, 2018. "Macroeconomic Structural Changes in a Leading Emerging Market: The Effects of the Asian Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-42, December.
    10. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Output-Inflation Trade-offs and the Optimal Inflation Rate," Working Papers 20-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    12. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Smoothed-off kink in demand curve; Trend inflation; Staggered price setting; Natural rate hypothesis; Taylor principle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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