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Kinked demand curves, the natural rate hypothesis, and macroeconomic stability

  • Kurozumi, Takushi
  • Zandweghe, Willem Van

In the presence of staggered price setting, high trend inflation induces a large deviation of steady-state output from its natural rate and indeterminacy of equilibrium under the Taylor rule. This paper examines the implications of a ''smoothed-off'' kink in demand curves for the natural rate hypothesis and macroeconomic stability using a canonical model with staggered price setting, and sheds light on the relationship between the hypothesis and the Taylor principle. An empirically plausible calibration of the model shows that the kink in demand curves mitigates the influence of price dispersion on aggregate output, thereby ensuring that the violation of the natural rate hypothesis is minor and preventing fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations under the Taylor rule.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 13-08.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp13-08
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  1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  2. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Quaderni di Dipartimento 097, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  3. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G., 2005. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 213-242, January.
  5. Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 2007. "Estimating the frequency of price re-optimization in Calvo-style models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2032-2047, October.
  6. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2002. "Menu costs and the long-run output-inflation trade-off," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 95-100, June.
  7. Michael T. Kiley, 1996. "Endogenous price stickiness and business cycle persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Toyoichiro Shirota, 2007. "Phillips Correlation and Trend Inflation under the Kinked Demand Curve," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-5, Bank of Japan.
  11. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Firm-specific labor, trend inflation, and equilibrium stability," Research Working Paper RWP 12-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  12. David Romer, 1989. "Staggered Price Setting with Endogenous Frequency of Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 3134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
  14. Miles S. Kimball & Michael Woodford, 1994. "The quantitative analysis of the basic neomonetarist model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1241-1289.
  15. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-70, February.
  16. Levin, Andrew & Yun, Tack, 2007. "Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis in a New Keynesian framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1344-1365, July.
  17. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "Trend inflation, sticky prices, and expectational stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-187.
  18. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Partial adjustment and staggered price setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  20. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Tack Yun, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Relative Price Distortions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 89-109, March.
  22. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
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