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Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy

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  • Yasuo Hirose
  • Takushi Kurozumi
  • Willem Van Zandweghe

Abstract

Empirical studies have documented that the persistence of the gap between inflation and its trend declined after the Volcker disinflation. Previous research into the source of the decline has offered competing views while sidestepping the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy. This paper examines the source by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model using a Bayesian method that allows for indeterminacy. The estimated model shows that the Fed's change from a passive to an active policy response to the inflation gap or a decrease in firms' probability of price change can fully account for the decline in inflation gap persistence by ruling out indeterminacy that induces persistent dynamics of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2021. "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 21-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:89958
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202105
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2022. "Macroeconomic changes with declining trend inflation: Complementarity with the superstar firm hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation gap persistence; Predictability; Equilibrium indeterminacy; Monetary policy; Non-CES aggregator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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