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A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models

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  • Bianchi, Francesco
  • Nicol�, Giovanni

Abstract

We propose a novel approach to deal with the problem of indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations models. The method consists of augmenting the original model with a set of auxiliary exogenous equations that are used to provide the adequate number of explosive roots in presence of indeterminacy. The solution in this expanded state space, if it exists, is always determinate, and is identical to the indeterminate solution of the original model. The proposed approach accommodates determinacy and any degree of indeterminacy, and it can be implemented even when the boundaries of the determinacy region are unknown. Thus, the researcher can estimate the model by using standard packages without restricting the estimates to a certain area of the parameter space. We apply our method to simulated and actual data from a prototypical New-Keynesian model for both regions of the parameter space. We show that our method successfully recovers the true parameter values independent of the initial values.

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  • Bianchi, Francesco & Nicol�, Giovanni, 2017. "A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 12130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12130
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    Cited by:

    1. Nils Gornemann & Sebastian Hildebrand & Keith Kuester, 2022. "Limited Energy Supply, Sunspots, and Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 215, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Stephen McKnight & Laura Povoledo, 2022. "Endogenous fluctuations and international business cycles," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 312-348, February.
    3. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Wei Dai & Mark Weder & Bo Zhang, 2020. "Animal Spirits, Financial Markets, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2053-2083, December.
    5. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Marco M. Sorge, 2020. "Arbitrary initial conditions and the dimension of indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(1), pages 363-372, June.
    7. Ilabaca, Francisco & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2019. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland.
    9. Farmer, Roger E A, 2019. "The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 13745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Roger E.A. Farmer & Giovanni Nicolò, 2021. "Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 1-22, September.
    13. Jonas E. Arias & Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2020. "Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 51-94, June.
    14. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Sanjay R. Singh, 2019. "Understanding Persistent Stagnation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1243, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    18. Leland Farmer & Roger Farmer, 2022. "Zoomers and Boomers: Asset Prices and Intergenerational Inequality," NBER Working Papers 30419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Alice Albonico & Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of rule-of-thumb consumers for US business cycle fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2020-102, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2020. "Regularized Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Papers 2009.05875, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    21. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    22. Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Stabilizing Taylor rules and determinacy under unit root supply shocks: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    23. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2020. "The Spectral Approach to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Papers 2007.13804, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods.; General Equilibrium; Indeterminacy; Solution method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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