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Monetary Policy and Indeterminacy after the 2001 Slump

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  • Firmin Doko Tchatoka

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Nicolas Groshenny

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Qazi Haque

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Mark Weder

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model of the U.S. economy over the period following the 2001 slump, a period for which the adequacy of monetary policy is intensely debated. To relate to this debate, we consider alternative inflation series in the estimation. We find that only when measuring inflation with core PCE monetary policy appears to have been reasonable and sufficiently active to rule out indeterminacy. We then relax the assumption that inflation in the model is measured by a single indicator and re-formulate the artificial economy as a factor model where the theoryÂ’s concept of inflation is the common factor to the empirical inflation series. We find that CPT and PCE provide better indicators of the latent concept while core PCE is less informative. Finally, we allow for positive trend inflation and the emerging results complement our previous findings. Again, even with these extensions, the only instance in which we can confidently rule out indeterminacy is when we measure inflation with core PCE.

Suggested Citation

  • Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Nicolas Groshenny & Qazi Haque & Mark Weder, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Indeterminacy after the 2001 Slump," School of Economics Working Papers 2016-09, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:2016-09
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 025, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks: A new-Keynesian interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 277-296.
    3. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    4. Qazi Haque & Nicolas Groshenny & Mark Weder, 2018. "Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?," School of Economics Working Papers 2018-03, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    5. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Research Working Paper RWP 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6821, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2016. "The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 78-93.
    8. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indeterminacy; Taylor Rules; Trend Inflation; Great Deviation.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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